2024 GeostrategicOutlookHow to thrive amid ongoinggeopolitical complexityDecember 2023EY ParthenonBuilding a better working worldThe world in 2024The late 2010s and early 2020s have beenThe extent of de-risking policies and regulations will vary acrosscharacterized by rising geopolitical tensionssectors,with the greatest focus on products that governmentsdeem to be strategic.Companies that produce semiconductors,and significant policy shifts in key markets.telecommunications networks,renewable energy technologies,Heading into the middle of the decade,the globalelectric vehicles (EVs)and biotechnologies are among thoseenvironment will remain volatile and unstablethat will face more government intervention in their supplychains and investment decisions.More broadly,these economicAs executives seek to anticipate and plan forsecurity policies could fuel inflation and hinder the global spreadgeopolitical disruptions,two key themes will beof innovation.important to keep in mind in 2024.Multipolarity and de-risking will manifest in many ways throughoutthe year,with the most visible and impactful areas for businessThe first theme is multipolarity.The geopolitical environmentmaking our top 10 list of geopolitical developments in 2024.is increasingly likely to be upended in a variety of geographiesMost of them will not be wholly new but rather an evolution ofand issue areas.The future of the relationships between thedevelopments from previous years(see Figure 1 on page 3).In fact,great powers (the US,EU and China)remains uncertain.Geopoliticalall but one of the top 10 developments in 2023 are expected toswing states will expand their influence regarding the topics on theevolve into various aspects of the key developments in 2024.global agenda and how issues are addressed.Emerging and frontiermarkets will be increasingly vocal about what they perceive to beThe top 10 developments in 2024 will also be important signposts indouble standards of Western governments.And smaller actors-anticipating how globalization is likely to evolve in the comingincluding both governments and non-state actors are likely toyears.In the future of globalization scenarios,EY analysis identifiedassert themselves both locally and regionally.geopolitical relations and countries'economic policy stances astwo key strategic uncertainties that will shape the global operatingThis multipolarity is likely to reinforce existing economicenvironment.The multipolar developments are likely to push thediversification trends and the importance of supply chain resiliency.geopolitical environment toward more distinct blocs or networksThese trends will be driven in large part by heightened competitionof alliances.The de-risking developments point toward greaterbetween geopolitical blocs or alliance networks.At the same time,nationalist competition in economic policies,at least for strategicmultipolarity will likely continue to create challenges in globalsectors,although in many cases these policies are organized aroundpolicy coordination,elevating the uncertainty and severity of anytrading blocs.The outlook for 2024 is therefore a hardening of thetransnational crises that may emerge or expand as the year unfolds.trend in recent years toward a more fragmented global economy.The second theme is de-risking.Building on trends in recent years,governments will continue to reengage in or expand their relianceon industrial policy to promote greater domestic manufacturingof critical products.This coupling of economic policy with foreignor national security policies will become more prevalent and overtin 2024.Governments will seek to reduce global dependencies,prioritizing national security (broadly defined)over purely economicconsiderations when designing and implementing policies.2024 Geostrategic Outlook